The online holiday season is predicted to be a record-setting sales event given Adobe's forecast of $240.8 billion sales happening between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31.
The forecast also predicts Black Friday growth will outpace shopping on Cyber Monday, according to a press release.
Big drivers to the e-commerce growth will be strong discounts, more mobile devices used for shopping and the major role social media influencers will play — driving consumers to shop 10 times more compared to overall social traffic to retail sites.
In the 2023 season, shoppers spent $221.8 billion online at 4.9% growth year over year.
Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% year over year. This would represent a 53.2% share of online spend this season (versus desktop shopping).
Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7.0% year over year — and represent 16.9% of the overall holiday season.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season's and year's biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1% year over year.
Yet Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% year over year) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% year over year) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in growth year over year, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S. retailers.
In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 71% plan to shop online on Black Friday, with 70% stating they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week.
"The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways," Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said in the release. "These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers."