Much of the forecasting for this year’s holiday shopping has focused on its shortness: the quirk of the 2024 calendar that has just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day. But in truth, the holiday shopping season has actually been getting longer, not shorter, for several years now. And despite the kvetching about Christmas decorations going up next to displays for Halloween candy, these longer seasons actually offer retailers a significant opportunity in the form of more full-price sales.
That’s according to Howard Meitiner, Managing Director at Carl Marks Advisors and a retail veteran with stints at Sephora, LVMH, Fortunoff and The Museum Company on his résumé. “From the retailer’s point of view, it’s great that consumers are buying earlier,” said Meitiner in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “Retailers will make more money on purchases made in October versus the end of December, when they’re trying to get rid of the stuff that they haven’t sold.”
Meitiner shared his predictions for Q4, including the impact of U.S. election results, the strong ongoing appeal of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, and why he believes AI will one day be as unremarkable and commonly used as the internet is now.
Retail TouchPoints (RTP): How do you see the 2024 holiday season shaping up overall?
Howard Meitiner: Most of the research I’ve looked at over the last few months seems to be consistently forecasting a 2% to 3% growth range [in holiday sales compared to the previous year], although the NRF is a bit higher. That’s less growth than we saw in 2023, and a lot of it has been related to concerns and uncertainties around the election. Now, whether your choice won or not, it’s over. And had the Democrats won, there was concern about social unrest and what that might mean, but now we know that things are going to be calm, which may improve the mood of the country a bit.
RTP: Which categories do you see having a strong season, and which ones will struggle?
Meitiner: We’ve all been reading about the troubles of the luxury industry, at Gucci, LVMH, Burberry, etc., and on the other end the Dollar Tree-type retailers are suffering. This season is going to be all about price and promoting, and sensibly, a lot of retailers started their efforts in October, which we also saw in 2023.
Now, and going forward, the “holiday season” is basically a three-month slog from October to December, and the longer the season is for retailers the better, because they have more chance of selling the products they bought at full price.
Categories that are likely to see declining sales include furniture and home; building and garden; sports and music. Somewhat surprisingly, health and personal care look to be flat, while groceries, clothing and accessories are likely to see growth. Consumers also are looking for travel and experiences; where people might have bought someone a gift in previous years, they might visit and say, “I’m the gift.”
RTP: How will consumers be financing their holiday spending?
Meitiner: We are seeing a divergence: there’s a sector of the consumer population who are feeling the pinch and will be more modest in [their shopping]. Those benefiting from the stock market and their 401Ks are likely to spend more, but the majority are going to spend the same [as they did the previous year]. Inflation remains a big concern for a lot of people who may be facing tighter budgets.
That’s why BNPL is such a phenomenon and continues to grow. In 2022, 360 million people worldwide used BNPL, and 900 million will be using it by 2027. It’s a great deal for retailers: if you come into the store, you don’t have to pay anything [for a purchase at that point], and the retailer is guaranteed to get the [purchase price], minus the commission they pay to the BNPL provider, which takes the risk.
But what a lot of consumers don’t understand is that if you don’t pay [the BNPL provider] back within the allotted time period, the interest you’ll pay on the outstanding debt is greater than if you had put it on your credit card. My advice to consumers is: don’t do BNPL if you don’t have the money to [make the purchase], and don’t buy things you don’t need with BNPL.
RTP: What roles do you see for the use of AI this holiday season and into the new year?
Meitiner: AI will have a huge and profound impact on marketing, changing its very nature, with its ability to interpret consumer behavior online and present to those consumers the products and experiences that may be of interest to them. The smart companies, and those with the capital to invest, such as Walmart, Amazon and Target already have made great strides in using generative AI for marketing purposes. Studies show that 17% of consumers use ChatGPT for online product research, and 10% are expected to use it for holiday gift selection.
AI also can help with logistics in areas such as distribution, purchasing, just-in-time management and staff modeling.
RTP: You mentioned retailers with enormous resources. What about for those that don’t have the money or person-power to invest in AI?
Meitiner: What I’ve advocated for a long time is that retailers should outsource all non-core functions. Why would you build a whole AI team when there are companies that specialize in it? By the same token, why would you build your own warehouse when there are third-party warehousing services? Don’t try to be a specialist in AI; focus on retailing, and use the outsourced specialists you need to provide the help you want.
The point is that AI is going to become just like the web, a prerequisite for having an online business — it’s going to have the same or even more importance than the internet. If you’re not currently embracing AI, develop a skillset to make that part of your business or you’ll fall behind.
RTP: What would be your advice to retailers on getting the most out of this holiday season?
Meitiner: First, overperform in terms of customer service. Consumers responding to surveys may say price is the most important factor for them, but as a shopkeeper myself for many years, customer service is always the big differentiator. Why are department stores declining? Because when you go in you can’t find anyone to serve you. And you need to win on service on your website, your call center, in-store, wherever.
Additionally, you have to continue to innovate product-wise, because you have to keep earning the loyalty of your consumer. It’s not enough to have a great loyalty program, because people aren’t buying a program, they’re buying products. The consumer is so tuned into innovation that you have to win on product.
Finally, we’re all dealing with the new reality: that it’s very difficult to be a successful online-only brand, and it’s very difficult to be a store-only brand. Omnichannel is the only way to go because you have to meet the consumer where they are, and that has to be invisibly integrated — no matter how the consumer wants to buy. There’s an old saying that with omnichannel, 1+1=3. The corollary is that either “1” on its own is really more like 0.75.