Despite contradictions in economic indicators, retail sales growth remains on track as retailers enter the busy holiday season.
"The economic data calendar was quite busy at the end October but while there were contradictions and mixed signals, we continue to believe the U.S. economy remains in a good place," National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz stated in the November issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review. "Most importantly, the new data doesn't change our 2024 holiday forecast or retail sales projections for the year."
In mid October, the NRF forecast for retail sales during the November-December holiday season predicted an increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023 to a total of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
Two weeks later, government data showed the economy had gained only 12,000 jobs during October and that the annual pace of gross domestic product growth had slowed to 2.8% in the third quarter from 3% in the second quarter.
The NRF said it is too soon to predict the impact of election results on the economy for the remainder of the year or the effect they will have going forward, according to a press release on the November issue of the Monthly Economic Review.
"Putting all these considerations together, this holiday season looks very good," Kleinhenz said in the release. "I am optimistic about the pace of economic activity in the final quarter of the year."