When it comes to supply chain disruptions, it’s no longer if but when, Jonathan Gold, VP of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, wrote in a new blog post last week.
“Retail supply chains have been caught in a constant state of disruption for the past decade,” he said. “What was once a stable, predictable environment has become a constant state of uncertainty.”
The comments come as retailers experience more chaos in their global supply chains due to war spreading across the Middle East.
The ripple effects of the conflict are developing in real time, but there are already numerous signs global trade is feeling the pressure, as both freight carriers and third-party logistics (3PL) providers report delays and capacity issues.
Air freight carrier DSV is reporting that despite the limited restoration of services in the Gulf, global air cargo capacity shortage remains severe and now the impact is spreading to other trade lanes as cargo is rerouted through China and Hong Kong from Southeast Asia, the Indian Subcontinent, and Oceania.
“Customers should anticipate potential delays or even cancellations, space constraints, and short-notice rate adjustments in the coming days and weeks,” the company warned in a statement. Omair Tariq, founder and CEO of 3PL firm Cart.com, told Retail Brew that geopolitical disruptions are hampering both inbound and outbound trade activity for its clients.
“It is impacting brands’ ability one, to actually get the product to the US to sell to US consumers, but then also for brands actually doing commerce internationally,” he said.
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He added that at the time of the interview, one customer’s product was stuck en route, and Cart.com is working to “help with the technological rails to move the orders and inventory and product in a way that enables the least amount of friction for these brands.”
NRF also forecast that import cargo in the first half of 2026 is already on track to decline from 2025 levels, even without a clear picture yet of how the war will impact global supply chains.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which helps NRF with its import forecast, said in a statement that the immediate impact of the war in Iran is “not likely to be substantial” due to the fact that minimal US-bound cargo moves through the region.
But the longer-term cause for concern, he noted, is higher oil and gas prices causing inflation that could ultimately “squeeze consumer discretionary spending.”